Fed interest rate cut bets ramp up rapidly, initial jobless claims data confirms a weak labor market

On September 11, the U.S. government report this Thursday showed that initial jobless claims surged to a nearly four-year high, and the short-term interest rate futures market continued to increase bets on Fed rate cuts, from expecting at least two cuts by the end of this year to betting on four consecutive cuts from September to January next year, to fully pricing in three cuts within this year, meaning the Fed will cut rates in all remaining meetings this year. However, the August CPI increase was stronger than expected, which may prevent the Fed from starting significant rate cuts, with the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September rising slightly from 8% before the announcement to 10.9%. ( Jin10 )