Zcash price shows potential for a 60% drop if this key support level is breached

Zcash price forecast charts (ZEC) continue to reflect a weak trend, despite the recent rebound. Notably, ZEC price has dropped about 60% from its most recent high.

Currently, ZEC is moving within an upward “bear flag” pattern – that is, after a sharp drop, the price tends to recover slightly within a narrow channel. This pattern often signals a risk of further decline if the support line is breached, with a projected decrease of up to 60%.

Some experts believe the current area is an accumulation zone, but technical signals still indicate downside risk has not been eliminated.

Why does the Zcash price forecast show a 60% downside risk?

Zcash price is forming an upward bear flag pattern – characterized by a strong decline followed by a modest rise within a tight range. If the price breaks the lower trendline, the previous downward trend is likely to repeat.

Zcash price forecast shows downside potential | Source: TradingViewAccording to technical analysis, the next target price for ZEC is identified around the $141 zone, based on measuring the previous decline’s range and applying it at the breakout point.

Although this scenario has not been confirmed, supporting factors for the downtrend remain, especially market cash flow.

The Chaikin Money Flow indicator (CMF) – a tool measuring money inflow/outflow based on price and trading volume – has remained below 0 for several weeks, while setting new lows. This indicates that large investors have not truly supported the price.

The On-balance Volume indicator (OBV) also shows a sideways trend, even after breaking its short-term downtrend. Sideways OBV reflects that buying pressure is not strong enough to spark a breakout, and only when this indicator reaches new highs will a recovery outlook become clearer.

Notably, the correlation between Zcash and Bitcoin has turned negative (-0.18) over the past week, meaning the two coins tend to move in opposite directions.

The correlation between Zcash (ZEC) and BTC | Source: DeFillamaIf Bitcoin grows due to market sentiment or positive news, Zcash may not benefit correspondingly, increasing the risk that ZEC underperforms even when the broader market is bullish.

Hope or risk?

Not all experts agree with the bearish scenario. Some opinions on forums suggest Zcash is in an accumulation phase – meaning large investors are quietly buying while the price moves sideways for an extended period.

According to Wyckoff theory, one expert believes ZEC is building a price base in the $300–$400 zone. Another expert points out strong buying activity from whale wallets, while smaller investors tend to sell.

However, these signals are still insufficient to reverse the technical trend. The bear flag pattern remains, CMF is still below 0, and OBV is still sideways. No indicator has confirmed a strong upside potential yet.

To reinforce a positive view, ZEC needs to break through the key resistance level at $533. If the price closes above this, most of the previous decline will be recovered, and the bear flag pattern will be invalidated. This would be a positive signal showing the accumulation process is working.

Key price levels to watch

Zcash investors need to closely monitor both sides of the market. If the lower trendline of the bear flag pattern is broken and CMF continues to set new lows, the scenario of a drop to $141 becomes more realistic, repeating the previous 60% decline. If OBV also turns downwards, the risk increases further.

Conversely, if the price holds the support line and breaks above $533, the bearish outlook will weaken, indicating stronger buying pressure and opening up a recovery opportunity toward previous resistance zones.

Key Zcash price levels to watch | Source: TradingViewCurrently, the Zcash price forecast still leans toward a bearish scenario unless the market shows clear positive signals. Until buying pressure rises strongly and CMF moves above 0, the current pattern remains weak.

The accumulation story from some experts could still play out, but the chart needs more concrete evidence for this view to be truly reliable.

Ong Giao