Four drivers that could help Cardano break through by the end of 2025

Cardano (ADA) has recorded an impressive bounce back, increasing by up to 60% from the bottom in June. However, since the beginning of 2025, this coin has mainly fluctuated in the price zone of 0.5 – 1 USD. Currently, expectations for a strong breakout are rising in the investor community, especially when the "altcoin season" index has just set a new peak for the year.

So, what will be the driving force for ADA to go further in the remaining months of 2025? Below are the noteworthy factors.

1. Large wallet addresses continue to accumulate ADA, showing long-term confidence

According to the latest data from Alphractal, 29.6% of the total ADA supply is currently held by the 100 largest addresses – the highest level since 2021. This indicates that the "whales" continue to accumulate, despite the relatively calm price movement of ADA.

The holding amount of the TOP 100 ADA | Source: AlphractalNotably, about 19 billion ADA, equivalent to 54% of the circulating supply, belongs to long-term investors – those who steadfastly hold through multiple market cycles, demonstrating strong confidence in Cardano.

The supply of ADA held at the end of December | Source: AlphractalIn the history of cryptocurrency, the act of whales aggressively accumulating often sets the stage for strong breakouts, such as the price surge of ADA in 2021. Current on-chain signals continue to reflect strong confidence, not only from major investors but also from the long-standing community attached to the project.

"In other words, the key investors of the Cardano ecosystem still seem to place their full hopes in the future of the project," Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, emphasized.

2. Grayscale plans to stake all ADA in the ETF, increasing the fund's value.

A notable turning point comes from Grayscale – the world's leading digital asset manager. In a filing submitted to the (SEC), Grayscale stated that it will proceed to stake all of the ADA held in the Cardano ETF (GADA).

According to the plan, the staking rewards after fees will be directly reinvested into the fund, thereby increasing value for shareholders. This move not only demonstrates Grayscale's strong belief in the potential of ADA, but also provides additional motivation for both existing investors and newcomers to the market.

Nevertheless, this strategy still requires official approval from the SEC. Notably, data from Polymarket shows that the probability of the ADA ETF being approved in 2025 has risen to 87% — a record high.

Earlier, in August, Grayscale submitted an application to establish a Cardano ETF, with a final decision expected to be announced by the SEC in October.

3. ADA futures contracts surpass the peak of 2021, indicating strong speculative capital flow.

The ADA derivatives market is entering a lively phase. In just the past month, the open contracts (OI) for ADA futures have consistently maintained above 1.6 billion USD per day — the highest level since 2020, according to data from Coinglass.

Open contract of Cardano futures | Source: CoinglassThis wave shows that speculative capital is pouring in, as traders compete to open Long and Short positions to bet on price fluctuations.

The downside of high leverage is the increased risk of liquidation every time the market reverses. However, from another perspective, this also demonstrates the growing appeal of ADA to traders. In fact, in the past, periods of OI explosion were often accompanied by strong price increases of ADA, such as in 2021.

4. Technical Analysis: giant symmetrical triangle, breakout is approaching

On the weekly chart, ADA's chart is gradually completing a large symmetrical triangle pattern – a signal that often indicates a strong volatility is about to occur.

According to the famous technical analyst Sheldon The Sniper on X, this coin has the potential to soon break through the resistance zone, opening up opportunities to conquer the milestone of 2 USD, even 3 USD.

Weekly ADA/USDT Chart | Source: Sheldon The Sniper*"ADA is in a preparatory phase. A parabolic price increase could happen at any moment," Sheldon emphasized.*

Cardano is currently converging many driving forces: strong accumulation from whales, backing from Grayscale, lively activity in the derivatives market, along with positive technical signals. Everything seems to be pointing towards one scenario – a powerful breakout.

However, the macro environment – especially interest rate policy – remains a key variable. If the trend is favorable, ADA could completely return to previous peak zones as forecasted. Conversely, economic instability could pull ADA and the entire cryptocurrency market into a downward adjustment phase.

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