Gate Daily (September 12): The Federal Reserve (FED) to cut interest rates 3 times before the end of the year; BlackRock considers ETF tokenization; Chinese companies' stablecoin activities in Hong Kong may be restricted.

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a strong short-term pump, temporarily reporting around $116,130 on September 12. The U.S. core consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.1%, while the overall CPI increased by 2.9%. Traders have fully priced in the Federal Reserve (FED) lowering interest rates 3 times before the end of 2025, starting rate cuts next week. JPMorgan warned of industry shifts, and BlackRock is considering tokenization of ETFs. The report noted that Chinese companies' stablecoin activities in Hong Kong may face restrictions.

Today's Outlook

1. China's M2 money supply (year-on-year) at the end of August was 8.8%.

2. UK July Trade Balance (in million GBP), previous value was -22156

3. UK July industrial output (year-on-year), previous value was 0.2%

4. The final value of France's consumer price index (monthly rate) for August is 0.4%, previous value.

5, The preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for September in the United States is 58.2, previous value.

Macroeconomic Events & Cryptocurrency Hotspots

1. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on September 11 that the core consumer price index, excluding the more volatile food and energy categories, rose by 0.3%. When including these two categories, the overall CPI increase was 0.4%. Compared to the same period last year, the core CPI rose by 3.1%, while the overall CPI increased by 2.9%. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday showed that for the week ending September 6, the number of initial unemployment claims increased by 27,000 to reach 263,000, the highest level since October 2021. Last week, initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. jumped to near a four-year high, indicating that as hiring sharply slows, layoffs may be increasing.

2. Traders fully price in that the Federal Reserve (FED) will cut interest rates 3 times by the end of 2025 due to a weak job market. Analysts believe the impact of President Trump's comprehensive tariffs is gradual, but prices could accelerate in the coming months as companies have now exhausted their pre-tariff inventories. Business surveys have been indicating for some time that prices are set to rise. Stephen Stanley, Chief Economist at Santander Bank's U.S. Capital Markets, stated: "A large amount of evidence suggests that more tariff-related inflation is on the way, although it may take several months to fully transmit."

3. The world's largest asset management company, BlackRock, is exploring methods for tokenization of exchange-traded funds (ETF) on the blockchain, following strong performance of the company's spot Bitcoin ETF. Bloomberg reported on September 11, citing knowledgeable sources, that the company is considering tokenizing funds that have exposure to real-world assets (RWA). However, any such initiative would need to overcome regulatory hurdles. Morningstar stated that ETFs have become one of the most popular investment tools, and in fact, the use of ETFs is very widespread, exceeding even the number of publicly listed stocks.

4. Chinese internet giants, state-owned enterprises, and financial institutions operating in Hong Kong may face restrictions on stablecoin and cryptocurrency activities. According to reports from Hong Kong media on September 11, companies from mainland China operating in Hong Kong may be forced to exit cryptocurrency-related businesses. It is expected that several state-owned enterprises and Hong Kong branches of Chinese banks will also not participate in the competition for stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong. Previous reports indicated that HSBC and the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), plan to apply for stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong. The new stablecoin regulatory framework in Hong Kong took effect on August 1, with a six-month transition period. Regulators have stated that 77 institutions have expressed interest in applying.

Market Trends

1. Latest Bitcoin news: $BTC shows strong short-term pump, currently reported at around 116,130 USD, with 83.72 million USD liquidated in the past 24 hours, mainly from short positions;

2. The three major U.S. stock indices reached new closing highs on September 11, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassing 46,000 points for the first time. Inflation data met expectations, leading investors to almost certainty that the Federal Reserve (FED) will cut interest rates next week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 617.08 points, an increase of 1.4%, closing at 46,108.00 points. The S&P 500 Index increased by 55.43 points, up 0.9%, closing at 6,587.47 points, marking four consecutive days of gains; the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 157.01 points, an increase of 0.7%, closing at 22,043.08 points.

(Source: Gate)

3. In the Gate BTC/USDT liquidation map, based on the current 115,475.40 USDT, if it drops to around 113,258 USDT, the total liquidation amount for long positions exceeds 812 million USDT; if it rises to around 116,331 USDT, the total liquidation amount for short positions exceeds 577 million USDT. The liquidation amount for shorts is significantly lower than for longs, so it is recommended to reasonably control the leverage ratio to avoid triggering large-scale liquidations during market fluctuations.

(Source: CoinGlass)

4. In the past 24 hours, BTC spot inflow was 1.98 billion USD, outflow was 1.97 billion USD, with a net outflow of 0.01 billion USD.

(Source: CoinGlass)

5. In the past 24 hours, contracts such as $DOGE, $XRP, $LTC, $WLFI, and $ADA have seen significant net outflows, indicating trading opportunities.

News Updates

1. FTX/Alameda redeemed and transferred 192,000 SOL again, approximately 43.56 million USD.

2. After 13 years, the "sleeping whale" of Bitcoin transfers over 230 BTC.

3. OpenAI plans to transform into a profit-making company, while the non-profit organization will hold shares worth hundreds of billions of dollars.

4. DTCC includes three cryptocurrency ETFs, covering Solana, HBAR, and XRP.

5. BlackRock is exploring the tokenization of traditional assets such as ETFs through blockchain.

6. Safety Shot established BONK Holdings to implement digital asset strategies, currently holding 2.5% of the total circulation of BONK.

7, Bubblemaps: The MYX team is directly related to the $170 million airdrop wallet.

8, 3 new wallets have received over $200 million worth of ETH from FalconX in the last 3 hours.

9. Galaxy Digital has purchased 430,000 SOL from CEX again, accumulating a total of 1,350,000 SOL in the last 12 hours.

10. Starknet: The BTC staking feature will be available on the mainnet on September 30.

11. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States has surged, and the market has fully priced in a rate cut by The Federal Reserve (FED) next week.

12. Sei: The U.S. Department of Commerce data is about to connect to the Sei network.

13. Traders fully price in The Federal Reserve (FED) will cut interest rates three times before the end of 2025.

14. Analysis: The rise in the U.S. consumer price index in August exceeded expectations, but it will not prevent the Federal Reserve (FED) from lowering interest rates next week.

15. Traders are increasing their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, believing that the Fed will cut rates at least twice by the end of 2025.

X KOL Selected Insights

Phyrex Ni (@Phyrex_Ni): "The operations on September 12 were similar to what was expected. The newly released CPI data had a very small impact on the market, and both the US stock market and cryptocurrencies are maintaining a healthy upward trend, especially BTC, which has seen a significant increase in the trading volume of the first-level spot ETF. However, there hasn't been much change in the trading volume of the spot market, indicating that traditional investors still dominate the willingness to participate. The main contention in the market is still between Trump and the conservatives at The Federal Reserve (FED). Although it's been somewhat repeated, it is indeed the case. The market is already anticipating that The Federal Reserve (FED) will cut interest rates three times or by 75 basis points in 2025, so the dot plot in September will be particularly important to watch. A rate cut in September is highly probable, especially if there are still 50 dot points in the plot."

"Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, although the price of BTC has broken through $114,500, the trading volume has not increased much. In the past two days, the investors who bought the dip are the ones leaving the market the most, while other earlier investors are still on the sidelines. This has actually been the case for a long time; even when trading volume increases, it is mostly short-term investors, while long-term investors have mostly been inactive. The support level remains very resilient, as has been mentioned many times before. There is no important data this week; we are just waiting for next week's retail data, followed by the interest rate meeting. I don't know if Milan can make it. If he can catch up, then Trump’s side can proceed smoothly +1."