India Under Pressure: Trump’s Tariffs, EU Sanctions, and the Rupee at Record Lows

India’s energy trade and currency are facing a severe test as geopolitical tensions between the United States and the European Union spill into Asia. Washington is pushing for a total ban on Russian oil imports, while Brussels insists on stricter price caps. The result: declining Indian imports, nervous markets, and the rupee falling to historic lows.

Trump’s Hardline Stance Against India Donald Trump, back in the White House, abandoned the earlier price-cap strategy and bluntly told India to halt purchases of Russian oil. When New Delhi refused, he slapped 50% tariffs on Indian exports to the U.S. The measures are already choking trade flows and investor confidence. According to traders, India’s imports of Russian oil are expected to drop to 1.4 million barrels per day in October, compared to 1.6 million in September and 1.5 million in August. Indian buyers are now demanding a $10 discount per barrel from Russian sellers, up sharply from just $2–3 in September.

EU Takes a Different Path Unlike Trump’s approach, the EU continues to enforce a price-cap policy. Recently, Brussels lowered the ceiling from $60 to $47.60 per barrel, aiming to curb Kremlin revenues while keeping global supplies steady.

The issue is that Brent crude currently trades at $67 per barrel, meaning most Russian shipments to India are well above the cap. This forces Moscow to rely on a “shadow fleet” of tankers with Russian insurance, operating outside Western oversight.

Rupee Hits Record Low as Investors Flee The economic fallout is dramatic. The Indian rupee plunged to a record 88.44 per dollar on Thursday, breaking its previous low of 88.36.

The Reserve Bank of India has been intervening to slow the pace of the drop, but it hasn’t been enough to stabilize the currency. Foreign investors have already withdrawn $11.7 billion from Indian equity and bond markets this year. Harsh U.S. tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty are eroding trust in India’s financial stability.

What’s Next? Final import volumes for October will be confirmed within two weeks once contracts are settled. But it’s already clear: India will import less Russian oil, pay more for the barrels it gets, and absorb more of the geopolitical strain. The rift between the U.S. and EU over sanctions doesn’t just weigh on Moscow — it puts New Delhi in a difficult position, caught between two competing power blocs.

#India , #russia , #oil , #TRUMP , #Geopolitics

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