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A public chain deeply integrated with Telegram—Analysis of the TOP Gainers TON
To talk about the most popular public chain project recently, I believe it’s none other than Ton. Today’s DOGS is its on-chain project. TON’s uniqueness lies in the fact that it is not just a blockchain but an ecosystem deeply linked with the world’s largest communication platform, Telegram. Let’s take a look at it today.
1. Basic Fundamentals
TON (The Open Network) is a next-generation blockchain platform focusing on speed, security, and scalability. Its core design philosophy is to handle millions of transactions per second when necessary, while maintaining user and service provider friendliness.
TON’s history dates back to 2018, when Telegram founder Pavel Durov launched the TON project and raised $1.7 billion, but it was later forced to halt due to legal proceedings by the U.S. SEC. In 2020, community developers took over the project and continued to push forward, transforming TON from “Telegram’s blockchain” to “Telegram ecosystem’s blockchain.” In May 2026, a fundamental shift occurred—Durov officially announced that Telegram would replace the TON Foundation as the main driving force and largest validator of TON, which is the second step in the MTONGA roadmap’s 7 steps.
TON’s technical architecture adopts an “infinite sharding” design, achieving horizontal scalability through dynamic sharding mechanisms, theoretically increasing throughput infinitely as demand grows.
Core application scenarios in the TON ecosystem include: Mini App ecosystem within Telegram, TON Space wallet, on-chain payments (USDT issuance on TON has exceeded 1 billion), DeFi protocols (staking, lending, DEX), and recently launched AI agent functions (TON Tech launched an AI agent on April 28 that can autonomously execute on-chain transfers, swaps, DeFi operations, and staking).
2. Current Market Overview
TON’s current price is $1.8151 USDT, with a 24-hour surge of 30.36%, intraday fluctuation range of 1.3635 — 1.8742. 7-day increase of 37.35%, 30-day increase of 46.85%, 90-day increase of 44.06%, with a very strong short-term upward trend. Market cap is approximately $4.85B, ranked 27th, a mid-cap token.
24-hour trading volume is about 15.6 million USDT, with a trading volume of 9.03 million TON. Contract holdings increased by 22.36% in 24 hours (from 189.5 million to 231.9 million), with extremely intense leverage trading. The fear/greed index has risen to 50, indicating market sentiment has shifted from fear to neutral leaning towards greed.
Social sentiment is extremely optimistic: positive sentiment accounts for 85%, negative 15%, with a sentiment score of 70%, dominated by bullish sentiment. Discussion activity has surged—posts in the past 3 days increased by 75% compared to the previous 4–6 days (89 vs. 51).
3. Recent Major Events and Catalysts for Rise
Event 1: Telegram officially takes over TON (most core catalyst)
On May 4–5, Durov officially announced that Telegram will replace the TON Foundation as the main driving force and largest validator of TON. This means TON shifts from a “community-driven blockchain” back to an “officially supported Telegram blockchain,” backed by the world’s largest communication platform with 900 million monthly active users. Related technical upgrades will be launched within 2–3 weeks. This is the most direct catalyst for the recent surge—Telegram’s official endorsement provides unprecedented credibility and user reach for TON.
Event 2: Transaction fees reduced by 6 times to near zero
After voting by validators, TON network transaction fees have been reduced by about 6 times. Sending TON now costs approximately $0.00052, and USDT transfer costs about $0.00142. The near-zero fees significantly lower user entry barriers, laying infrastructure groundwork for explosive growth in micro-payments, on-chain DeFi, and Mini App ecosystems.
Event 3: TON Tech launches AI agents
On April 28, TON Tech launched AI agents capable of autonomously executing on-chain transfers, swaps, DeFi operations, and staking without user private key interaction. The AI + blockchain narrative is one of the hottest tracks in 2026, and TON’s deployment in this field adds extra narrative premium.
Event 4: Mainnet validator rules update
On May 2, TON officially released an update to mainnet validator rules, proposing to raise the minimum staking from 824k TON to 1 million, and the maximum to 3 million. Increasing the staking threshold means validators need to hold more TON to participate in network maintenance, which will boost staking demand and reduce circulating supply, providing structural support for the token price.
4. Technical Analysis
Trend Signals
The trend is extremely strong. The 4-hour ADX is 49.73 (PDI=53.53, far greater than MDI=1.68), and the daily ADX is similarly very high, indicating a strong upward trend among all analyzed tokens. From 15-minute to daily charts, all moving averages are in a bullish alignment—MA7 > MA30 > MA120 across all timeframes, indicating a consistent upward trend.
The 4-hour PDI (53.53) and MDI (1.68) show a huge gap (about 32 times), meaning the upward momentum almost completely dominates the downward, with bulls holding absolute control. Such extreme PDI/MDI ratios rarely appear in normal markets and are often associated with major bullish catalysts leading to rapid surges.
Bollinger Bands are opening upward, and the price is far above the upper band—current price at 1.7928 is about 10.5% above the Bollinger upper band at 1.6220, with a bandwidth of 0.4883 far exceeding the 20-day average bandwidth of 0.2828. The price breaking above the upper band indicates strong momentum.
24-hour volume surge—trading volume is about 37 times the 7-day average (824k vs. 41,500 USDT), indicating significantly increased capital participation. Unlike DOGS, where the price rise was shrinking in volume, TON’s rapid surge is supported by ample funds, making the rally more credible.
Comparison with DOGS overbought condition
Both TON and DOGS are in extreme overbought states, but their overbought natures differ significantly:
TON has volume support—trading volume is 37 times the 7-day average, driven by real funds; DOGS’s price rise volume shrinks, with volume only 1/650 of the 7-day average, lacking fund support.
TON has fundamental catalysts—Telegram takeover + fee reduction + AI agents + staking threshold increase, multiple substantial positive factors stacking; DOGS’s catalysts mainly come from Revolut listing and spillover effects from the TON ecosystem.
TON’s market cap is larger—$15.42M (rank 27) vs. DOGS’s $37.39 million (rank 576), with more liquidity and relatively controlled volatility.
This means that although TON is severely overbought, it has higher “value”—supported by funds and fundamentals, so the correction might be milder; while the overbought state lacking support could see sharper declines.
5. Trading Strategy Recommendations
Short-term (1–3 days)
TON is in a state of “extremely strong trend + severe overbought + volume surge + major catalysts.” Unlike DOGS’s false overbought, TON’s surge is supported by real funds and fundamentals, making its overbought condition more “valuable.”
However, extreme overbought conditions almost always lead to technical pullbacks. Currently, it’s not suitable to chase the high. If you already hold TON, consider partial profit-taking—at the 4-hour RSI=91, a severe overbought, a pullback could happen at any time. Protect realized gains rather than chasing more unrealized profits.
If you don’t hold TON but want to buy in, wait for a pullback to the 4-hour support zone. The 4-hour MA7 around 1.61 and MA30 around 1.40 are potential support levels. By then, overbought indicators will likely have been digested, offering a better risk-reward entry.
Negative funding rate (-0.000076) favors long positions—holders can earn funding during the position, an additional advantage for long TON.
Medium to Long-term (1–3 months)
TON’s medium to long-term outlook has significantly improved under the Telegram takeover catalyst. The reach of 900 million users + near-zero fees + staking threshold increase + AI narrative form a strong bullish case. The subsequent steps in the MTONGA roadmap will be key variables for the medium-long-term trend.
However, the current surge is mainly driven by news catalysts rather than actual ecosystem usage growth. It takes time for catalysts to translate into real adoption, and there may be expectations gaps and corrections along the way. Investors with a medium-long-term bullish view should focus on actual ecosystem data rather than just narratives.