Lately, I've been looking at options positions, and the more I look, the more I feel that time value is quite "biased": as a buyer, even if you predict the right direction, if the market drags a little, theta acts like collecting rent every day, pushing you down; as a seller, the happiest thing is nothing happening, and when the market consolidates, you can slowly recover, but you also have to realize that when a big wave comes, the small time premiums you've earned could be wiped out overnight.

These days, we've been discussing rate cut expectations, the US dollar index, and risk assets rising and falling together, basically because the sentiment shifts too quickly... buyers fear this kind of "false start," where the market swings back and forth, burning through time; sellers find it quite appealing, but when macro signals turn suddenly, and volatility spikes, it can also be quite deadly.

My partner also complained about me: "You're not trading, you're just battling time." Hmm... that makes some sense. Anyway, I'm now more willing to wait for more certain volatility before taking action; if it doesn't happen, I won't bother too much.