Bitwise: Why Bitcoin Could Eventually Reach $1 Million and What Factors Could Derail It

Written by: Bitcoin Magazine Pro

Translated by: Plain Blockchain

Bitcoin has performed strongly this week, rising nearly 10%, currently up about 9.38%. This trend reflects a market rebound following recent uncertainty.

As geopolitical tensions begin to ease, some investors are reassessing Bitcoin’s role in the current environment. Conflicts often lead to increased government spending, which can exacerbate inflation.

In this context, fixed assets tend to become more attractive. Bitcoin’s supply cap of 21 million coins means it won’t inflate like traditional currencies due to currency devaluation, making it increasingly appealing to investors seeking long-term store of value.

Figure 1: BTC has been trending upward over the past week.

From a technical perspective, BTC is attempting to break out of the sideways trading range of the past six weeks. If successful, it could open the door to near $80,000. If it fails, there remains a risk of testing the 200-week moving average and the Realized Price, which have not yet been impacted in this bear market.

Figure 2: Current technical outlook.

Therefore, if the price breaks out significantly, the upside target is around $80,000 (the bottom of the Q4 2025 range). On the downside, the 200-week moving average is at $59,000, and the realized price is at $54,500.

Matt Hougan: The Logic and Barriers to $1 Million

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes many Bitcoin valuation models overlook a key assumption: they treat the “store of value” market as static. History shows that when economic pressures rise, the total pool of assets aimed at protecting wealth tends to expand.

Concerns over debt, ongoing monetary expansion, and geopolitical instability are driving investors toward assets designed to preserve value. Traditionally, gold has dominated this role; however, Bitcoin is increasingly entering this discussion.

Figure 3: Global M2 money supply and BTC.

A major structural driver is the expansion of global liquidity. As central banks increase M2 money supply, more funds seek scarce assets that can preserve value over time. Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins fundamentally differs from fiat currencies that can expand under stimulus policies. Post-quantitative easing, if global liquidity continues to grow and Bitcoin gains a larger share in the store of value market, a $1 million price in the long term is reasonable.

However, this path is not without obstacles.

Figure 4: Gold vs. Bitcoin prices.

Recent market performance highlights the competition. Over the past few months, gold has outperformed Bitcoin, indicating that during extreme uncertainty, investors still prefer traditional safe-haven assets.

Figure 5: The world’s largest asset classes.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s market cap remains smaller than major assets. Gold’s market value still far exceeds that of Bitcoin, meaning cryptocurrencies need to challenge the significant contribution of global wealth to approach a $1 million valuation.

Higher interest rates, improved economic stability, or faster adoption could delay this shift. But Hougan emphasizes that if monetary expansion continues and Bitcoin gains broader institutional recognition, its long-term upside remains substantial.