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After the Fed released the minutes of the October meeting, the market expects the probability of a rate cut in December to drop to 31.6%.
On November 20, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, after the Fed released the October meeting minutes, the market expects the probability of a rate cut in December to drop to 31.6%, while the probability of no rate cut rises to 68.4%. Before the data was released (at 1 AM Beijing time today), the market expected the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December to be 51.1%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged to be 48.9%.