Exclusive Interview with Arthur Hayes: There is no alt season at all, I bought a lot of gold.

Source | Odaily

Author | Hao Fangzhou

Original title | Odaily interview with Arthur Hayes: There is no altcoin season, I bought a lot of gold bars.

I saw the living Arthur Hayes!

The crypto world is no stranger to this name. As the co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, Arthur Hayes is both a pioneering representative of industry builders and a KOL who boldly and frequently outputs market predictions, without exception. He not only has a theoretical background in economics from the Wharton School but also has years of practical trading experience at Deutsche Bank and Citibank before diving into the crypto space.

According to its latest script: Powell insists on not lowering interest rates, while Trump seeks other ways to "squeeze out liquidity"; a bull market is inevitable, and all financial assets linked to Trump's policies will benefit; the crypto market will experience autumn fluctuations, and dipping is a good time to increase positions; ETH opens up upward space after breaking new highs, potentially reaching 10,000~20,000 dollars in the coming years; crypto treasury companies are not so easy to collapse; focus on ENA and HYPE for altcoins...

You see, whether it's external interviews or interactions on the X account, Arthur Hayes always presents clear viewpoints and arguments every time he outputs, and he is not afraid to contradict himself, adjusting flexibly. The long articles he produces (BitMEX blog) are often sought after by various media for their storytelling ability and skillful use of analogies.

On August 24, thanks to the referral from the friendly media CoinPost, Odaily has the honor of interviewing Arthur Hayes before the official start of Tokyo WebX.

Given that Arthur often discusses macro analysis and price forecasting in his daily conversations, this dialogue also touches on some topics that rarely appear in the "market", such as his attitude towards WLFI, YZY, gold, AI, and longevity technology, personal idols, daily life rhythm, and hobbies, etc. The interview is organized as follows, enjoy~

Odaily Daily Report: Hi, Arthur, it's a great honor to have the opportunity to chat face to face. I'm your die-hard fan, I bought ENA from 0.8 to 0.3 (Note: ENA is currently priced at 0.7 USDT), thank you!

Arthur Hayes: Hahaha, Nice.

Odaily Daily: Today, let's start with the macro perspective—Powell. A couple of days ago, you said he wouldn't "yield" to rate cuts, but it seems there has been a change. So, what is your latest market prediction?

Arthur Hayes: Powell has eased up this time, saying he will "provide money" to help Trump achieve his economic goals. So I believe the pace of dollar issuance will accelerate, and the Federal Reserve will align more with Trump's ideas. Bitcoin could reach 250,000 USD by the end of the year.

Odaily Daily Report: In the past period, most altcoins have not risen as much as ETH. When will the altcoin season arrive? Will holding on to ETH be a better option for buying altcoins?

Arthur Hayes: There hasn't been a season for altcoins at all. Over the past 18 months, only HyperLiquid has performed well. Altcoins are facing judgment; their common issues are high FDV, low circulation, and highly controlled capital. The projects have neither data nor users, so the community is coming out to punish these projects and will no longer hold them.

Odaily Daily Report: Recently, there is another variable in the market, WLFI officially announced that it will go live on September 1st. What are your thoughts on the pre-market valuation of this token? Will the market be drained because of the launch of WLFI?

Arthur Hayes: I didn't even look at its valuation. To be honest, I don't really know what this project is about, is it positioned as a hedge fund or a Dapp store? I haven't paid attention and I don't care. As for the impact on the crypto market, Trump's children have the authority to allocate WLFI tokens to certain DeFi projects, but I won't say more since I haven't investigated.

Odaily Daily: Do you have an investment research team? With the rapid changes in the global macroeconomy, how do you prioritize amidst the vast amount of information?

Arthur Hayes: There really is a team that focuses on early-stage projects, and if they encounter a good project, they will sign on as consultants. I mainly handle liquidity trading, focusing on researching macro variables, interest rate adjustments, inflation rates, and so on. Additionally, I invest in some projects that I personally like; they usually experience rapid user growth, can generate profits, and use the profits to buy back tokens. Our team will look for projects with these characteristics together; they may not yield a thousandfold return, but at least they won't rug tomorrow.

Arthur Hayes's X cover background

Odaily 星球日报: How to say Kanye's YZY? None of them seem to fit?

Arthur Hayes: Hahaha, YZY, hahaha, I haven't had enough fun yet. It's different, YZY is a Memecoin, I treat it like a lottery. Most Memecoins end up at zero, it's just for fun.

Odaily Daily Report: Well, you have a good mindset, haha. What is your "first principle" when obtaining information?

Arthur Hayes: I only care about liquidity, which is my primary perspective on investment products. The liquidity of Crypto is expanding, BTC is the best and the safest; I do have some altcoins, but overall I spend very little effort paying attention to them.

Odaily Daily: Do you have any special news channels?

Arthur Hayes: No.

Odaily Daily: What about communication channels with the rule makers?

Arthur Hayes: Hahaha, I'm only famous in Crypto, but not in the "core circle" of news. I also read other people's research reports.

Odaily Daily: In the industry, are there any friends who exchange projects or opinions together?

Arthur Hayes: Not really, mainly hanging out with my own team, focusing on macro variables – liquidity expansion, bull market, we go all in; when the situation looks bad, we pull our chips off the table. Isn't that just trend trading?

Odaily Daily Report: Who is your investment idol?

Arthur Hayes: (thought about it for a long time), um, probably Stanley Druckenmiller. (Note: He managed funds for Soros from 1988 to 2000 and was the former chairman and president of Duquesne Capital, which had over $12 billion in assets when it closed after 10 years; see more on his Wikipedia.)

Odaily Daily Report: What's the composition of your own positions? Besides the wallets we often "on-chain spy" on, can you share a bit?

Arthur Hayes: BTC - 60%, ETH - 20%, Altcoins - 20%.

Odaily Daily Report: In which products are your coins invested for financial management?

Arthur Hayes: I don't do lending, I will stake USDe with Ethena. It's hard to say whether other protocols have healthy lending practices, and I don't want to take the risk.

Odaily Daily Report: Besides coins, what to invest in and what to buy.

Arthur Hayes: I bought a lot of gold.

Odaily Daily: Wait, are you talking about physical stuff, like gold bars? Is it stored in Switzerland?

Arthur Hayes: Hahaha, right, gold bars, where are they, anyway, somewhere in the world.

Odaily 星球日报: Tai Cool Spicy. Have you recently invested in a longevity technology company with stem cell injections (Bloomberg source)? Can you share about this aspect?

Arthur Hayes: Indeed, I care quite a bit about healthy living and improving the quality of life. Humanity spends a lot of effort trying to unravel the secrets of aging and how to reverse it. Imagine the future, I will enjoy (life) to the fullest.

Odaily Daily Report: Aside from health, what are the visions for humanity's future life? Will AI take over everything by 2050? Will you no longer need to invest or trade?

Arthur Hayes: People probably haven't figured out what kind of life they really want to live. I haven't figured it out either.

Odaily Daily: Since we're talking about enjoying life, do you have any travel plans recently?

Arthur Hayes: It's summer, so I'm traveling around, getting in shape to prepare for the upcoming ski season, heading to the snowfields in Hokkaido during winter.

Odaily Daily: I just came from Sapporo! I went to RSR (Rock Festival) to see Shiina Ringo, it's cooler than Tokyo.

Arthur Hayes: OK, I really haven't been in the summer.

Odaily Daily: What is the rhythm of your daily life?

Arthur Hayes: Exercise for 3 hours every day, read books—novels, finance—read whatever interests you, spend a few hours on the phone each week, my elders don’t need regular care, I just show up when something happens.

Odaily Daily Report: Sounds pretty healthy. This time coming to Japan, what are your plans or tasks? Speaking of which, every time you attend a conference, apart from the output, what kind of input are you looking forward to?

Arthur Hayes: I'm staying for a very short time this time, leaving right after the speech tomorrow, and I haven't arranged any meetings with Japanese institutions or projects. I have some thoughts to express about stablecoins, and I will see the audience's reaction after the speech tomorrow.

Odaily Daily: What is the view on the Japanese yen and Hong Kong dollar stablecoins?

Arthur Hayes: To be honest, it's not very useful. The fiat and banking systems in Japan and Hong Kong are functioning well, and stablecoins are not really needed. USD stablecoins are a necessity because people in other regions really need them.

Odaily Daily Report: Thank you for sharing~ Good luck tomorrow.

Arthur Hayes: Thank you, enjoy the conference!