10:31
ING: Expected to rise above 1.17 for Europe and the US.
Jin10 data reported on September 5th that Francesco Pesole, a forex analyst at ING, pointed out that the latest survey of European Central Bank forecasters shows that market expectations have clearly shifted towards a hawkish stance. However, for the euro against the dollar, the trend still almost entirely depends on Fed policy and U.S. data. We expect this currency pair to rebound above 1.1700. In the coming days, any developments in French political dynamics and the situation in Ukraine will remain another important factor affecting the euro. The market anticipates that the French parliament will pass a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Borne on Monday. A realistic scenario thereafter is that President Macron will appoint a new centrist or center-right prime minister to push for a weakened fiscal consolidation plan. Throughout this process, political uncertainty will remain high, but we are uncertain if this will be sufficient to trigger uncontrollable fluctuations in French bonds, thereby exerting significant pressure on the euro—given the outcome of the no-confidence motion.