Full Analysis: XRP Dip Buyers Are Active — So Why Is the Price Still Falling?

Despite sustained “dip buying” from short-term traders, XRP’s price remains under significant pressure, having fallen nearly 8% in the past week. The core reason for this weakness is overwhelming selling from long-term holders and a sharp drop in overall money flow.

I. Market Dynamics and On-Chain Pressure

The analysis points to a conflict between short-term speculators and long-term investors: Short-Term Accumulation: Two cohorts of short-term holders (1–3 months and 1-week to 1-month) have been steadily increasing their supply holdings, indicating that they are actively buying the recent price dips in anticipation of a bounce.Aggressive Long-Term Selling: The short-term buying is being overwhelmed by heavy selling from long-term holders. The Hodler Net Position Change metric showed that outflows from these long-term wallets increased by 77% in less than two weeks (from 102.50 million XRP to 181.50 million XRP by November 14). This persistent long-term selling is absorbing any upward pressure.Fading Money Flow: The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures buying and selling pressure, has plunged to –0.15. This reflects significant net capital outflows from XRP and the breakdown below a descending CMF trendline, confirming that larger investors are withdrawing funds.

II. Critical Price Levels and Short-Term Forecast

XRP is currently struggling to break above the $2.26 (0.618 Fibonacci) resistance level, with the lack of money inflow weakening the upside push. Bearish Scenario (Breakdown Risk):Immediate Risk: If weakness continues, XRP risks losing the $2.17 level.Breakdown Target: A loss of the $2.17 support exposes a deeper move toward $2.06. A breakdown below $2.06 would confirm the invalidation of any short-term bullish attempts.Bullish Scenario (Required for Reversal):Condition/Trigger: The only way to regain momentum and flip the near-term structure bullish is a clean daily close above the $2.38 resistance level.Implied Price Target: Clearing $2.38 could open a path toward $2.57.

⚠️ Important Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on on-chain data and technical analysis. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.