Trump's visit to China 11 months ago to resolve the trade war? Rare earths and the South China Sea game become key variables.

This week, the call between senior officials from China and the United States has attracted external attention—President Trump may visit China in early November to seek breakthroughs in the stalled trade war. This trip might be scheduled around the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit to be held in South Korea, coinciding with the expiration of the temporary truce agreement in the tariff war between both sides on November 10.

Background of Trade War and Diplomatic Actions

Since Trump announced a new round of tariffs on Chinese goods in April of this year, relations between the two sides have continued to be tense. The U.S. has imposed a 30% tariff on Chinese imports and urged European allies to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese products, but European countries are taking a cautious stance.

Analysts point out that this week's high-level meetings aim to convey messages, manage external expectations regarding Trump's visit to China, and pave the way for a possible meeting between leaders.

Rare Earth Game Becomes Core Chip

In this trade war, restrictions on rare earth exports are seen as one of China's most lethal countermeasures.

Strategic value: Rare earths are key materials for manufacturing military equipment such as the F-35 fighter jet, precision guidance systems, radar, and submarines.

Current situation: Although some exports of civilian rare earths have been relaxed, military rare earths are still strictly regulated to maintain strategic advantages.

Market impact: In June this year, China had relaxed some export restrictions as part of the trade truce, but if the U.S. increases tariffs, rare earth exports may tighten again.

Experts on international issues from Fudan University pointed out that the rare earth restrictions are one of the most effective strategies to strike against the US this year, directly addressing the pain points of the US defense industry.

Security Clash over the South China Sea Issue

In addition to economic and trade issues, the South China Sea topic is also the focus of the game between the two sides.

South China Sea: The Chinese Minister of Defense reiterated during a meeting with his U.S. counterpart that he opposes "provocative actions" by external countries in the South China Sea and called for maintaining regional stability. Beijing recently announced that the Huangyan Island will be designated as a nature reserve, which is seen as a move to strengthen its sovereignty claims.

Experts believe that maritime security in the South China Sea will become an important topic in Sino-U.S. dialogue, and both sides need to avoid escalating tensions at the operational level.

Third-party Pressure and Global Landscape

The United States is trying to persuade its European allies to pressure China with tariffs, but the results have been limited. In contrast, China's economic cooperation with multiple countries covers investment, technology, and infrastructure, creating an advantage that is difficult for the U.S. to shake.

It is worth noting that Mexico has announced a 50% tariff on cars from China and other Asian countries, indicating that some countries are taking action under pressure from the United States.

Conclusion

Trump's possible visit to China may become a significant turning point in Sino-U.S. relations this year. Rare earth exports and South China Sea security will be key variables on the negotiating table. If both sides can reach a consensus before and after the APEC summit, the risk of escalating trade wars may decrease; conversely, global supply chain and geopolitical tensions are likely to further intensify.