Ethereum: Expectations for September

Ethereum seems to be ending August strongly, up over 23% and breaking a three-year fall streak in August. Unlike Bitcoin, which has struggled throughout the month, the price of ETH has shown a bounce back. However, September is usually one of the weakest months for Ethereum, with growth reaching only 3.20% in 2024 and 1.49% in 2023 after a series of gloomy Septembers before. Now, with charts showing mixed signals, ETH may experience a volatile month. Long-Term Holders Can Record Profits An important metric to watch is the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) of Ethereum, a measure of the overall profit of holders. A high NUPL means that most wallets are in profit, often indicating that some wallets may take profits. The NUPL of long-term Ethereum investors is currently at 0.62, close to the highest level in 3 months.

In the past, similar levels have triggered corrections. On August 17, when NUPL hit 0.63, ETH fell from $4,475 to $4,077 (-8.9%). By the end of that month, at 0.66, ETH dropped from $4,829 to $4,380 (-9.3%). This suggests that September may bring volatility or range-bound movement.

Historically, September is not the strongest month for ETH. This history, combined with high NUPL, further reinforces the argument for volatility. However, long-term fundamental factors still support the bullish trend. In an exclusive interview with Kevin Rusher, CEO of RAAC, he explained: "In September, I predict that the factors driving the price of Ethereum will remain unchanged, with the most important being the increasing trend of companies buying ETH to use as treasury bonds. In fact, just this week, Standard Chartered has stated this is the main reason for raising the price target for ETH to $7,500," he said. This trend of accumulating treasury, along with the role of Ethereum in DeFi and RWA, may help to mitigate bearish moves even as short-term volatility continues. Another important indicator is the Cost Basis Heatmap, which shows the latest accumulation position of ETH. These areas often serve as natural support or resistance thresholds.

The strongest support zone is between $4.323 and $4.375, where more than 962,000 ETH has accumulated. Below this zone, additional support areas are at $4.271–$4.323 (418.872 ETH) and $4.219–$4.271 (329.451 ETH), forming a buffer in case the price of Ethereum falls. The bigger challenge lies at higher levels. In the range from $4,482 to $4,592, nearly 1.9 million ETH has been accumulated, creating a formidable resistance zone. If the price of ETH surpasses this threshold, the upward momentum could extend to $4,956. We will discuss this further after reviewing the price movements of Ethereum. The Technical Chart Shows That Ethereum's Price Is Fluctuating The 2-day Ethereum price chart shows that the price has broken the upward trend line. This does not confirm a bearish reversal, but indicates that the upward momentum is weakening. The Relative Strength Index ( RSI ), measuring the speed and strength of price movements, has formed a bearish divergence — with the price reaching higher levels while the RSI is trending down. This often signals that strength is weakening and the ability to trade within a range, especially if it forms on a longer time frame.

If ETH bounces back to the level of 4,579 dollars (, it is close to breaking the basic cost resistance level ), the uptrend may return, with the main target being 4,956 dollars. On the downside, pay attention to $4.345 and $4.156 as key support levels. A break below $4.156 could open up further downside risk, while holding above $4.579 will help the price maintain the $4.956( level close to $5, a key psychological level). However, for Ethereum, that level cannot just be the beginning of something bigger, as Rusher summarized. "That's right, $5,000 is still a significant milestone. Psychologically, investors prefer round numbers, moreover, this is also a new all-time high. Once ETH surpasses the $5,000 mark, it will ultimately become a strongly defended support level," he added. However, if the price of Ethereum closes below $4,156 with a complete 2-day candle, the bullish trend may take longer to materialize. And as the NUPL stocks held long-term approach their highest level in 3 months, discussions about volatility will carry more weight.