Abstract

• Platforms like Pump.fun have fueled an explosive surge in meme coin supply, yet the success rate remains extremely low (under 1.3%), with a survival rate of only 3%. Meme coins have undergone four generations of evolution, marked by trends toward platformization, AI integration, and multi-chain deployment. Meanwhile, the emergence of tool-based token issuance has significantly shortened their lifecycles to just a few days—or even mere hours.
• The lifecycle of a meme coin can be divided into five distinct stages, each marked by quantifiable on-chain characteristics: Emergence, which is characterized by a small number of initial holders; Propagation with increased community activity and trading volume; Expansion with a peak in both holder count and transaction volume; Peak with a surge in copycat tokens and a decline in activity for the original token; Decline with liquidity withdrawal and a sharp drop in social media interest.

• On-chain and social signals jointly serve as early indicators for meme coin market trends. Social media buzz and on-chain search activity attract retail participation, while DEX liquidity and platforms like Pump.fun reflect capital inflows. Influencer promotions and wallet-copying behaviors create a positive feedback loop between social sentiment and on-chain activity—driving rapid price surges but also accelerating market reversals.
• Leading meme coins such as DOGE, SHIB, PEPE, and TRUMP have experienced significantly compressed lifecycles, with the time to reach a $100 million market cap shrinking from several years to just a few days. In their early breakout phases, the number of holding addresses surged exponentially—PEPE’s address count increased 20-fold, while TRUMP holders jumped from a few thousand to over one million. Price inflection points for DOGE and SHIB were primarily driven by shifts in holding structures and on-chain trading activity, whereas PEPE and TRUMP were more influenced by Google Trends, news events, and sentiment on X (formerly Twitter).

• The SIPLW signal framework—comprising Social Sentiment, On-Chain Interactions, Price Performance, Liquidity Dynamics, and Whale Behavior—can be used to assess the current stage of a meme coin’s lifecycle. Key indicators include tweet volume, wallet growth rate, TVL fluctuations, and whale inflows/outflows. By leveraging tools such as Dexscreener, Dune, and Arkham, investors can quantitatively identify lifecycle phases and conduct high-frequency tracking to enhance their strategic responsiveness.

• The lifecycle of meme coins has shrunk from several months to rapid cycles lasting just 1 to 3 days. To adapt, strategies must become more high-frequency and tool-driven: implement automated signal detection systems, deploy Whale Watch dashboards, closely monitor trending lists on incubation platforms like Pump.fun, and leverage multi-chain arbitrage and flash liquidity shifts to stay aligned with the rapidly evolving dynamics of meme-driven speculation.

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