Recent actions by the Federal Reserve have indeed refreshed the market's understanding. The December FOMC meeting released a lot of information, which is worth carefully analyzing for its impact on the crypto market.

On the surface, the Fed announced a 25 basis point rate cut, which should be a positive signal. However, the voting results are quite interesting—out of 12 voters, 3 opposed the cut, reaching a new high since 2019. Nearly half of the officials directly expressed "should not cut," and such divergence is indeed rare. More painfully, the dot plot forecasted that there might only be one rate cut in 2026, which sharply contradicts the market’s previous expectations of easing policies.

But this is not the most explosive part. The Fed also simultaneously launched a reserve management bond purchase plan, directly buying $40 billion of short-term government bonds in the first round, and this will be ongoing. This is the real move— the two-year balance sheet reduction cycle is officially over, and a new round of balance sheet expansion has begun.

How to interpret this move? The official stance from the Fed is that this is a "preemptive rate cut," with the core goal of stabilizing employment. They are indeed worried about a sharp collapse in the labor market. But from the market perspective, it’s like a hawkish posture on one hand, while quietly opening the floodgates on the other. Rates are cut, but not fully; tightened, but then loosened again. This contradictory policy combination will likely continue to influence the liquidity environment for crypto assets, and further observation is needed.